Spatio-Temporal Land Use Land Cover Changes in Moiben River Watershed (1990–2021) and Impacts on Hydrology
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Résumé
This paper investigates the spatio-temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and their hydrological implications in the Moiben River Watershed, Kenya, from 1990 to 2021. Remote sensing and GIS tools were used to map LULC for 1990, 2005, and 2021, while hydrological simulation was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The findings show that land use and land cover in the Moiben River watershed shifted significantly between 1990 and 2021. Over this period, agricultural land increased by 78.7%, primarily at the expense of natural forests, grasslands and bushlands, which declined by 40.9%, 38.8%, and 38.4% respectively. Hydrological modeling reveals a strong connection between these LULC changes and river flow dynamics. A simulated scenario converting 50% of agricultural land back to plantation forest demonstrated a beneficial impact on the watershed's hydrology, increasing dry-season base flow and moderating wet-season peak flows. These results suggest that LULC changes, particularly agricultural expansion, have significantly altered hydrological responses in the watershed. Sustaining the watershed’s ecological and hydrological integrity therefore requires integrated land management that balances agricultural production with conservation, supported by strong policy action and collaborative engagement among government agencies, communities and conservation partners.
Références
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Achungo, T. O. (2015). Influence of plantation establishment and livelihood improvement scheme on forest cover: A case of Uasin Gishu County, Kenya (Master’s thesis, University of Nairobi). University of Nairobi Institutional Repository. https://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/92856
Akenga, T., Kerich, E., Ayabei, K., & Sudoi, V. (2020). Health risk assessment levels of selected heavy metals on Solanum nigrum, soils and water collected along River Moiben, Uasin-Gishu County, Kenya. Archives of Organic and Inorganic Chemistry, 4(5), 1–10.http://dx.doi.org/10.32474/AOICS.2020.04.000197
Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., & Williams, J. R. (1998). Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: Model development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34(1), 73–89. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x
Baker, T. J., & Miller, S. N. (2013). Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess land use impact on water resources in an East African watershed. Journal of hydrology, 486, 100-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.041
Chepchumba, N. A., Daudi, F., & Raburu, P. (2024). Examining Land Use Changes Around Marura Wetlands of Uasin Gishu County from 1985 to 2015. Journal of Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems, 2(3), 40-56. http://blueprintacademicpublishers.com/index.php/JATEMS/article/view/163
El-Magd, S. A. A., Ahmed, H., Pham, Q. B., Linh, N. T. T., Anh, D. T., Elkhrachy, I., & Masoud, A. M. (2022). Possible factors driving groundwater quality and its vulnerability to land use, floods, and droughts using hydrochemical analysis and GIS approaches. Water, 14(24), 4073. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14244073
Foley, J. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S. R., ... & Snyder, P. K. (2005). Global consequences of land use. Science, 309(5734), 570–574. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1111772
Gashaw, T., Tulu, T., Argaw, M., & Worqlul, A. W. (2018). Modeling the hydrological impacts of land use/land cover changes in the Andassa watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Science of the Total Environment, 619, 1394–1408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.191
Gituara, S. (2021). Effects of Land Use Distribution on the Surface Water Quality in the Upstream Section of Nairobi River (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi). https://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/161003
Kibet, R., Olatubara, C., Ikporukpo, C., & Jebiwott, A. (2021). Land use land cover changes and encroachment issues in Kapkatet Wetland, Kenya. Open Journal of Ecology, 11(July), 493–506.
Kiplagat, K. D., Kollongei, K., & Kiptum, K. (2018). Modelling the Impacts of land Use Change on Stream Flow in the Kimwarer Catchment Using Swat. American Journal of water science and engineering, 4(4), 107-116.
Kiprop, J. K. (2018). Economic valuation of Moiben River pollution and improved domestic water supply in Elgeyo Marakwet county, Kenya (Doctoral dissertation, University of Eldoret). http://erepository.uoeld.ac.ke/handle/123456789/964
Lambin, E. F., Geist, H. J., & Lepers, E. (2003). Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 28(1), 205–241. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.28.050302.105459
Leta, M. K., Demissie, T. A., & Tränckner, J. (2021). Hydrological responses of watershed to historical and future land use land cover change dynamics of Nashe watershed, Ethiopia. Water, 13(17), 2372. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172372
Mganga, K. Z. (2022). Agricultural land degradation in Kenya. In Impact of Agriculture on Soil Degradation I: Perspectives from Africa, Asia, America and Oceania (pp. 273-300). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/698_2022_929
Mir, Y. H., Mir, S., Ganie, M. A., Bhat, J. A., Shah, A. M., Mushtaq, M., & Irshad, I. (2025). Overview of land use and land cover change and its impacts on natural resources. In Ecologically Mediated Development: Promoting Biodiversity Conservation and Food Security (pp. 101-130). Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-2413-3_5
Mulwa, P. (2019). Effects of land-use change on the Environment in Athi-River town (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi). https://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/109295
Munyoki, F., Makokha, M., & Obiero, K. (2024). Assessment of Land Use and Land Cover Change Dynamics and Drivers in Mbagathi River Catchment in Kajiado County, Kenya. Open Access Library Journal, 11(2), 1-12.
Muriithi, F. K. (2016). Land use and land cover (LULC) changes in semi-arid sub-watersheds of Laikipia and Athi River basins, Kenya, as influenced by expanding intensive commercial horticulture. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 3, 73-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2016.01.002
Mwangi, B. M. (2021). Threats of land use changes on wetland and water areas of Murang’a County, Kenya. Applied Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 9(6), 585–590. https://repository.mut.ac.ke/xmlui/handle/123456789/4697
Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., & Williams, J. R. (2011). Soil and Water Assessment Tool theoretical documentation version 2009. Texas Water Resources Institute. https://swat.tamu.edu
Nzau, M., Mwangi, S. W., & Kinyenze, J. M. (2018). Degradation of Grassland Ecosystems, Climate Change and Impacts on Pastoral Communities in Kenya. African Multidisciplinary Journal of Research, 3(2). https://journals.spu.ac.ke/index.php/amjr/article/view/46
Olang, L. O., & Fürst, J. (2011). Effects of land cover change on flood peak discharges and runoff volumes: model estimates for the Nyando River Basin, Kenya. Hydrological Processes, 25(1), 80-89. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7821
Onyango, A. E. (2012). The impacts of local communities encroachment on wetland ecosystem; a case study of Tana River Wetlands in Tana River County, Kenya. https://ir.kiu.ac.ug/handle/20.500.12306/5698
Pontius Jr, R. G., & Millones, M. (2011). Death to Kappa: birth of quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement for accuracy assessment. International journal of remote sensing, 32(15), 4407-4429.
Rekha, P., Kamalakkannan, M. K., Selvakumar, P., & Bhattacharya, S. (2025). Ground Water Management. In Emerging Trends and Technologies in Water Management and Conservation (pp. 149-174). IGI Global Scientific Publishing. https://www.igi-global.com/chapter/ground-water-management/364479
Rotich, B., & Ojwang, D. (2021). Trends and drivers of forest cover change in the Cherangany hills forest ecosystem, western Kenya. Global Ecology and Conservation, 30, e01755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01755
Tefera, M. L., Carletti, A., Altea, L., Rizzu, M., Migheli, Q., & Seddaiu, G. (2024). Land degradation and the upper hand of sustainable agricultural intensification in sub-Saharan Africa-A systematic review. Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics (JARTS), 125(1), 63-83. https://jarts.info/index.php/jarts/article/view/202403129757
Tola, S. Y., & Shetty, A. (2021). Land cover change and its implication to hydrological regimes and soil erosion in Awash River basin, Ethiopia: a systematic review. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 193(12), 836. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09599-6
Watene, G., Yu, L., Nie, Y., Zhu, J., Ngigi, T., Nambajimana, J. D. D., & Kenduiywo, B. (2021). Water erosion risk assessment in the Kenya great rift valley region. Sustainability, 13(2), 844. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020844
Achungo, T. O. (2015). Influence of plantation establishment and livelihood improvement scheme on forest cover: A case of Uasin Gishu County, Kenya (Master’s thesis, University of Nairobi). University of Nairobi Institutional Repository. https://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/92856
Akenga, T., Kerich, E., Ayabei, K., & Sudoi, V. (2020). Health risk assessment levels of selected heavy metals on Solanum nigrum, soils and water collected along River Moiben, Uasin-Gishu County, Kenya. Archives of Organic and Inorganic Chemistry, 4(5), 1–10.http://dx.doi.org/10.32474/AOICS.2020.04.000197
Arnold, J. G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R. S., & Williams, J. R. (1998). Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment part I: Model development. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34(1), 73–89. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05961.x
Baker, T. J., & Miller, S. N. (2013). Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess land use impact on water resources in an East African watershed. Journal of hydrology, 486, 100-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.01.041
Chepchumba, N. A., Daudi, F., & Raburu, P. (2024). Examining Land Use Changes Around Marura Wetlands of Uasin Gishu County from 1985 to 2015. Journal of Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems, 2(3), 40-56. http://blueprintacademicpublishers.com/index.php/JATEMS/article/view/163
El-Magd, S. A. A., Ahmed, H., Pham, Q. B., Linh, N. T. T., Anh, D. T., Elkhrachy, I., & Masoud, A. M. (2022). Possible factors driving groundwater quality and its vulnerability to land use, floods, and droughts using hydrochemical analysis and GIS approaches. Water, 14(24), 4073. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14244073
Foley, J. A., DeFries, R., Asner, G. P., Barford, C., Bonan, G., Carpenter, S. R., ... & Snyder, P. K. (2005). Global consequences of land use. Science, 309(5734), 570–574. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1111772
Gashaw, T., Tulu, T., Argaw, M., & Worqlul, A. W. (2018). Modeling the hydrological impacts of land use/land cover changes in the Andassa watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Science of the Total Environment, 619, 1394–1408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.191
Gituara, S. (2021). Effects of Land Use Distribution on the Surface Water Quality in the Upstream Section of Nairobi River (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi). https://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/161003
Kibet, R., Olatubara, C., Ikporukpo, C., & Jebiwott, A. (2021). Land use land cover changes and encroachment issues in Kapkatet Wetland, Kenya. Open Journal of Ecology, 11(July), 493–506.
Kiplagat, K. D., Kollongei, K., & Kiptum, K. (2018). Modelling the Impacts of land Use Change on Stream Flow in the Kimwarer Catchment Using Swat. American Journal of water science and engineering, 4(4), 107-116.
Kiprop, J. K. (2018). Economic valuation of Moiben River pollution and improved domestic water supply in Elgeyo Marakwet county, Kenya (Doctoral dissertation, University of Eldoret). http://erepository.uoeld.ac.ke/handle/123456789/964
Lambin, E. F., Geist, H. J., & Lepers, E. (2003). Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 28(1), 205–241. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.28.050302.105459
Leta, M. K., Demissie, T. A., & Tränckner, J. (2021). Hydrological responses of watershed to historical and future land use land cover change dynamics of Nashe watershed, Ethiopia. Water, 13(17), 2372. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172372
Mganga, K. Z. (2022). Agricultural land degradation in Kenya. In Impact of Agriculture on Soil Degradation I: Perspectives from Africa, Asia, America and Oceania (pp. 273-300). Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/698_2022_929
Mir, Y. H., Mir, S., Ganie, M. A., Bhat, J. A., Shah, A. M., Mushtaq, M., & Irshad, I. (2025). Overview of land use and land cover change and its impacts on natural resources. In Ecologically Mediated Development: Promoting Biodiversity Conservation and Food Security (pp. 101-130). Singapore: Springer Nature Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-96-2413-3_5
Mulwa, P. (2019). Effects of land-use change on the Environment in Athi-River town (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi). https://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/handle/11295/109295
Munyoki, F., Makokha, M., & Obiero, K. (2024). Assessment of Land Use and Land Cover Change Dynamics and Drivers in Mbagathi River Catchment in Kajiado County, Kenya. Open Access Library Journal, 11(2), 1-12.
Muriithi, F. K. (2016). Land use and land cover (LULC) changes in semi-arid sub-watersheds of Laikipia and Athi River basins, Kenya, as influenced by expanding intensive commercial horticulture. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 3, 73-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2016.01.002
Mwangi, B. M. (2021). Threats of land use changes on wetland and water areas of Murang’a County, Kenya. Applied Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 9(6), 585–590. https://repository.mut.ac.ke/xmlui/handle/123456789/4697
Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., & Williams, J. R. (2011). Soil and Water Assessment Tool theoretical documentation version 2009. Texas Water Resources Institute. https://swat.tamu.edu
Nzau, M., Mwangi, S. W., & Kinyenze, J. M. (2018). Degradation of Grassland Ecosystems, Climate Change and Impacts on Pastoral Communities in Kenya. African Multidisciplinary Journal of Research, 3(2). https://journals.spu.ac.ke/index.php/amjr/article/view/46
Olang, L. O., & Fürst, J. (2011). Effects of land cover change on flood peak discharges and runoff volumes: model estimates for the Nyando River Basin, Kenya. Hydrological Processes, 25(1), 80-89. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7821
Onyango, A. E. (2012). The impacts of local communities encroachment on wetland ecosystem; a case study of Tana River Wetlands in Tana River County, Kenya. https://ir.kiu.ac.ug/handle/20.500.12306/5698
Pontius Jr, R. G., & Millones, M. (2011). Death to Kappa: birth of quantity disagreement and allocation disagreement for accuracy assessment. International journal of remote sensing, 32(15), 4407-4429.
Rekha, P., Kamalakkannan, M. K., Selvakumar, P., & Bhattacharya, S. (2025). Ground Water Management. In Emerging Trends and Technologies in Water Management and Conservation (pp. 149-174). IGI Global Scientific Publishing. https://www.igi-global.com/chapter/ground-water-management/364479
Rotich, B., & Ojwang, D. (2021). Trends and drivers of forest cover change in the Cherangany hills forest ecosystem, western Kenya. Global Ecology and Conservation, 30, e01755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01755
Tefera, M. L., Carletti, A., Altea, L., Rizzu, M., Migheli, Q., & Seddaiu, G. (2024). Land degradation and the upper hand of sustainable agricultural intensification in sub-Saharan Africa-A systematic review. Journal of Agriculture and Rural Development in the Tropics and Subtropics (JARTS), 125(1), 63-83. https://jarts.info/index.php/jarts/article/view/202403129757
Tola, S. Y., & Shetty, A. (2021). Land cover change and its implication to hydrological regimes and soil erosion in Awash River basin, Ethiopia: a systematic review. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 193(12), 836. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-021-09599-6
Watene, G., Yu, L., Nie, Y., Zhu, J., Ngigi, T., Nambajimana, J. D. D., & Kenduiywo, B. (2021). Water erosion risk assessment in the Kenya great rift valley region. Sustainability, 13(2), 844. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020844
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Publiée
Aug 28, 2025
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Comment citer
Rotich , F. K., Mwasi , B. N., Kigen, C., & Opata , G. P. (2025). Spatio-Temporal Land Use Land Cover Changes in Moiben River Watershed (1990–2021) and Impacts on Hydrology. Journal of Aquatic and Terrestrial Ecosystems, 3(2), 88–109. https://doi.org/10.69897/jatems.v3i2.271
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Bibliographies de l'auteur
Felix Kipkemoi Rotich , Department of Environmental Planning, Sustainability and Geoinformatics, School of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources Management, University of Eldoret, P.O. Box 1125-30100, Eldoret, Kenya
Department of Environmental Planning, Sustainability and Geoinformatics, School of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources Management, University of Eldoret, P.O. Box 1125-30100, Eldoret, Kenya
Ben N. Mwasi , Department of Environmental Planning, Sustainability and Geoinformatics, School of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources Management, University of Eldoret, P.O. Box 1125-30100, Eldoret, Kenya
Department of Environmental Planning, Sustainability and Geoinformatics, School of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources Management, University of Eldoret, P.O. Box 1125-30100, Eldoret, Kenya
Charles Kigen, Department of geography and environmental studies, Moi University, P.O. Box 3900-30100, Kesses, Eldoret, Kenya
Department of geography and environmental studies, Moi University, P.O. Box 3900-30100, Kesses, Eldoret, Kenya
Grephas Pancras Opata , Department of Environmental Planning, Sustainability and Geoinformatics, School of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources Management, University of Eldoret, P.O. Box 1125-30100, Eldoret, Kenya
Department of Environmental Planning, Sustainability and Geoinformatics, School of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources Management, University of Eldoret, P.O. Box 1125-30100, Eldoret, Kenya