Navigating the Storm: Geopolitical Disruptions Reshaping Global Leadership in the Financial Sector

Main Article Content

B. Kipchumba Tarus https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4896-5541

Keywords

Geopolitical risk, financial sector leadership, banking stability, financial fragmentation, cross-border lending, ESG resilience, economic sanctions

Abstract

The contemporary global financial landscape is undergoing an unprecedented transformation driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, economic sanctions, and the fragmentation of international financial systems. This systematic literature review examines how geopolitical disruptions are fundamentally transforming global leadership in the financial sector. Adopting PRISMA guidelines, the study analyzed 156 peer-reviewed and gray literature records (2000–2025) retrieved from Scopus, Web of Science, EconLit, and Google Scholar, supplemented by policy reports and citation snowballing. The evidence reveals five interconnected transformations: the fragmentation of global financial infrastructure via sanctions; the rise of regional blocs challenging Bretton Woods governance; the redefinition of leadership competencies toward geopolitical literacy; the weaponization of technology through CBDCs and techno-nationalism; and the erosion of cooperative regulatory frameworks. The review demonstrates that these disruptions propagate through interconnected transmission channels such as market volatility and operational security risks creating emergent systemic threats. While fragmentation generates efficiency losses, it simultaneously catalyzes resilience investments and institutional innovations. However, asymmetric profitability dynamics advantage large institutions, while African economies face acute challenges from externally imposed de-risking. Ultimately, financial leadership is evolving from the specialized technocrat toward a strategic generalist capable of integrating quantitative rigor with geopolitical sophistication. The review concludes that these disruptions are structurally embedded, requiring institutions to cultivate adaptive capacities, strategic foresight, and resilience engineering to navigate persistent turbulence.

Abstract 54 | PDF Downloads 23

References

Abolarin, S. K., Fevrier, K., & Abdulsamad, A. (2025). Navigating the energy transition: International oil company divestments and the stranded asset dilemma in Africa. The Extractive Industries and Society, 24, 101737.

Abu Khalaf, B., Alqahtani, M. S., & Al-Naimi, M. S. (2025). ESG Controversies and the Financial Performance of MENA Firms: The Moderating Role of Board Characteristics. Sustainability, 17(11), 5055..

African Business. (2024). Africa looks to muscle in on the semiconductor value chain. https://african.business/2024/03/technology-information/africa-looks-to-muscle-in-on-the-semiconductor-value-chain

African Development Bank. (2023). African Economic Outlook 2023. https://www.afdb.org/en/documents/african-economic-outlook-2023

Ajour El Zein, S., Clemente-Almendros, J. A., & Boldeanu, F. T. (2025). Understanding de-dollarization among BRICS nations: Systematic review of the factors and fallout. RAC - Revista de Administração Contemporânea, 29(2), e024001. https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-7849rac20242001en

Alberola Ila, E., & Mattei, I. (2022). Central bank digital currencies in Africa. BIS Papers No. 128. Bank for International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap128.htm

Aldasoro, I., Frost, J., Gambacorta, L., Leach, T., & Whyte, D. (2020). Cyber risk in the financial sector. SUERF Policy Note No. 206.

Arslanalp, S., Eichengreen, B., & Simpson-Bell, C. (2022). The stealth erosion of dollar dominance: Active diversifiers and the rise of nontraditional reserve currencies (IMF Working Paper No. 2022/058). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400200305.001

Atlantic Council. (2020). Design choices of central bank digital currencies will transform digital payments and geopolitics. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/design-choices-of-central-bank-digital-currencies-will-transform-digital-payments-and-geopolitics/

Auer, R., Cornelli, G., & Frost, J. (2022). Rise of central bank digital currencies: Drivers, approaches and technologies. BIS Quarterly Review. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2209b.htm

Australian Institute of International Affairs. (2025). BRICS institutional innovation and the push for economic sovereignty. Australian Outlook. https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/brics-institutional-innovation-and-the-push-for-economic-sovereignty/

Avril, P., McQuade, P., Pancaro, C., & Reghezza, A. (2025). Geopolitical Risk, Bank Lending and Real Effects on Firms: Evidence from the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

Ayyagari, M., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Maksimovic, V. (2011). Small versus young firms. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5631. https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5631

Bai, G. (2023). From de-risking to de-dollarisation. Tricontinental Institute. https://thetricontinental.org/wenhua-zongheng-2024-1-derisking-dedollarisation-brics-currency/

Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., & Davis, S. J. (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024

Ballis, A. (2025). Geopolitical tensions and financial networks: Strategic shifts toward alternatives. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.21480

Bamiatzi, V., Jones, S., & Mitchelmore, S. (2024). Self-interest over ethics: Firm withdrawal from Russia after the Ukraine invasion. Journal of Business Ethics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-024-05836-3

Bank for International Settlements. (2022). Project mBridge: Connecting economies through CBDC. https://www.bis.org/publ/othp59.htm

Bank for International Settlements. (2024). Annual Economic Report. https://www.bis.org

Bank for International Settlements. (2025). Geopolitics meets monetary policy: Decoding their impact on cross-border bank lending (BIS Working Papers No. 1247). https://www.bis.org/publ/work1247.htm

Bank of England. (2018). Could a cyber attack cause a systemic impact in the financial sector? Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2018/could-a-cyber-attack-cause-a-systemic-impact-final-web.pdf

Bank of Ghana. (2023). Financial Stability Review. https://www.bog.gov.gh

Bardoscia, M., Barucca, P., Battiston, S., Caccioli, F., Cimini, G., Garlaschelli, D., ... & Caldarelli, G. (2021). The physics of financial networks. Nature Reviews Physics, 3(7), 490-507.

Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Laeven, L., & Levine, R. (2005). Financial constraints and growth. Journal of Finance, 60(1), 137–177. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00787.x

Bennedsen, M., Pérez-González, F., & Wolfenzon, D. (2020). Do CEOs matter? Evidence from hospitalizations. Journal of Finance, 75(4), 1877–1911. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12897

Berman, N., Couttenier, M., Rohner, D., & Thoenig, M. (2017). This mine is mine! How minerals fuel conflicts in Africa. American Economic Review, 107(6), 1564–1610. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150774

Bezerra, V. S. (2020). Institutionalization of the BRICS discourse: How does the NDB embody the group's views on global financial governance? BRICS Journal of Economics, 1(4), 70–81. https://doi.org/10.38050/2712-7508-2020-1-4-7

Boddewyn, J. J. (2016). International business-government relations. Journal of World Business. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jwb.2016.08.001

Boddewyn, J. J., & Doh, J. P. (2011). Global strategy and the collaboration of MNEs, NGOs, and governments. Global Strategy Journal, 1(3–4), 345–361. https://doi.org/10.1002/gsj.35

Botteghi, E., Centonze, M. S., Pastorello, D., & Tantari, D. (2026). Network security under heterogeneous cyber risk profiles and contagion. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.16805

Boubaker, S., Sarea, A., & Choudhury, T. (2023). Guest editorial: Implications of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the global financial markets. The Journal of Risk Finance, 24(1), 1-5.

Bouveret, A. (2019). Cyber risk scenarios, the financial system, and systemic risk assessment. Carnegie Endowment. https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2019/09/cyber-risk-scenarios-the-financial-system-and-systemic-risk-assessment

Branstetter, L. (2024). Export controls and U.S.–China technology competition in an interdependent world. Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/20240701_Branstetter_Sanctions.pdf

Broadstock, D. C., Chan, K., Cheng, L. T. W., & Wang, X. (2021). ESG performance and financial resilience: Evidence from COVID-19. Finance Research Letters, 38, 101716. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101716

Brochet, F., Loumioti, M., & Serafeim, G. (2018). Speaking of the short-term: Disclosure horizon and managerial myopia. Review of Accounting Studies, 23(3), 1122–1163. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-018-9459-3

Buch, C. M., Buchholz, M., & Tonzer, L. (2015). Uncertainty, bank lending, and bank-level heterogeneity. IMF Economic Review, 63(4), 919-954.

Cagiza, G. (2025). Investment risk and development finance in Angola: Risk mitigation and ethical engagement. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.18906

Caldara, D., & Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring geopolitical risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194–1225. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191823

Caldara, D., Fuentes-Albero, C., Gilchrist, S., & Zakrajšek, E. (2020). The economic effects of geopolitical risk. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 34(4), 119–145. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.34.4.119

Campanella, M. (2014). The internationalization of the renminbi and the rise of a multipolar currency system (ECIPE Working Paper No. 01/2014). European Centre for International Political Economy. https://ecipe.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/WP201201_1.pdf

Center for Macroeconomics and Development. (2022). CBDCs in Africa: Policy report. https://www.cmacrodev.com/central-bank-digital-currencies-in-africa/

Center for Strategic and International Studies. (2024). Did U.S. semiconductor export controls harm innovation? https://www.csis.org/analysis/did-us-semiconductor-export-controls-harm-innovation

Central Bank of Kenya. (2023). Bank Supervision Annual Report. https://www.centralbank.go.ke

Central Bank of Nigeria. (2023). Financial Stability Report. https://www.cbn.gov.ng

Centre for Economic Policy Research. (2025). Geneva Report 28: Geopolitical tensions and international fragmentation: Evidence and implications. https://cepr.org/system/files/publication-files/271360-
geneva_28_geopolitical_tensions_and_international_fragmentation_evidence_and_implications.pdf

Chang, H. H., Harrington, B., Fu, F., & Rockmore, D. (2023). Complex systems of secrecy: The offshore networks of oligarchs. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.03371

Chari, A., Converse, N., Mehl, A., Milesi-Ferretti, G. M., & Vansteenkiste, I. (2025). Geopolitical tensions and international financial fragmentation: The 28th Geneva Report on the World Economy. Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Chen, L. (2025). Global versus regional financial governance: Institutional analysis. International Organisations Research Journal, 20(3). https://iorj.hse.ru/en/2025-20-3-abstracts.html

Christensen, H. B., Maffett, M., & Rauter, T. (2021). The real effects of mandated disclosure: Evidence from conflict minerals regulation. The Accounting Review, 96(5), 235–266. https://doi.org/10.2308/TAR-2017-0188

Claessens, S., Tong, H., & Wei, S. J. (2012). From the financial crisis to firm-level outcomes. Journal of International Economics, 88(2), 287–303. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.05.002

Collins, D. (2025). De‐Dollarization Is a Plausible Outcome of the New Washington Consensus. Global Policy. https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.70109

Cucchi, A. (2025). Geopolitics of oil: How China is challenging the petrodollar through the petro-yuan. IE University School of Politics, Economics, and Global Affairs. https://ipr.blogs.ie.edu/2025/06/27/geopolitics-of-oil-how-china-is-challenging-the-petrodollar-through-the-pedro-yuan/

Cumming, D., Nguyen, M., Pham, A. V., & Samarasinghe, A. (2025). Banking system stability: A global analysis of cybercrime laws. Journal of International Business Studies. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.01237

Custódio, C., Ferreira, M. A., & Matos, P. (2019). Generalists versus specialists: Lifetime work experience and chief executive officer pay. Journal of Financial Economics, 134(2), 466–488. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.04.005

Das, S., Markowitz, H., Scheid, J., & Statman, M. (2018). ESG fund performance in crises. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.09906

De Saituma Cagiza, C. B. (2025). De-risking development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A qualitative study of investment dynamics. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.18906

Deen, E. (2024). Africa's AI future in the context of the US-China AI race. Global Center for AI Analysis. https://globalcenter.ai/research/africas-ai-future-in-the-context-of-the-us-china-ai-race/

Demertzis, M., & Lipsky, J. (2023). The geopolitics of central bank digital currencies. Intereconomics, 58(4), 173-177.https://doi.org/10.2478/ie-2023-0037

Deming, D. J., & Kahn, L. B. (2018). Skill requirements across firms and labor markets. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 133(3), 1395–1450. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy013

Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Pedraza, A., & Ruiz-Ortega, C. (2020). The COVID-19 crisis and SMEs. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org

Doh, J. P., Lawton, T. C., & Rajwani, T. (2012). Advancing nonmarket strategy research. Academy of Management Perspectives, 26(3), 22–39. https://doi.org/10.5465/amp.2012.0041

Drago, D., Riedl, A., & Schröder, M. (2024). ESG and geopolitical risk: Hedging effectiveness and transmission channels. Research in International Business and Finance, 69, 102411. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102411

Duchin, R., Ozbas, O., & Sensoy, B. (2010). Costly external finance. Journal of Financial Economics, 99(2), 238–252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2009.12.008

Dumitrescu, C. (2025). CBDC stress test in a dual-currency setting. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.13384

Dupont, B. (2019). The cyber resilience of financial institutions: Significance and applicability. Cybersecurity, 5(1), tyz013. https://academic.oup.com/cybersecurity/article/5/1/tyz013/5585673

Erzurumlu, Y. O., Gozgor, G., Lau, C. K. M., Soliman, A. M., & Turkkan, M. (2025). The effects of geopolitical and political risks on corporate ESG practices. Journal of Environmental Management, 386, 125747.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125747

European Banking Authority. (2025). EU-wide stress test results. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/eu-banks-can-weather-recession-driven-global-trade-war-stress-test-shows-2025-08-01/

European Central Bank. (2024). Geopolitical risk and financial stability. ECB Financial Stability Review. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/special/html/ecb.fsrart202405_01

European Central Bank. (2025). ECB to assess banks' stress testing capabilities to capture geopolitical risk. https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ssm.pr251212~69f656d4bf.en.html

European Central Bank. (2026). Navigating a complex credit risk landscape. https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/speeches/date/2026/html/ssm.sp260225~6414b05e13.pl.html

European Investment Bank. (2023). Finance in Africa 2023. https://www.eib.org/en/publications/finance-in-africa

European Parliament Research Service. (2025). Confiscation of immobilised Russian sovereign assets (Briefing No.
EPRS_BRI(2025)775908). European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2025/775908/EPRS_BRI(2025)775908_EN.pdf

European Systemic Risk Board. (2022). Systemic cyber risk report. https://esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/reports/esrb.report200219_systemiccyberrisk~101a09685e.en.pdf

Evenett, S., & Pisani-Ferry, J. (2024). Geoeconomic fragmentation. CEPR. https://cepr.org

Faccio, M. (2006). Politically connected firms. American Economic Review, 96(1), 369–386. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282806776157704

Farrell, H., & Newman, A. (2019). Weaponized interdependence. International Security, 44(1), 42–79. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00351

Fialkowski, J., Diem, C., Borsos, A., & Thurner, S. (2025). A data-driven econo-financial stress-testing framework to estimate the effect of supply chain networks on financial systemic risk. arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.17044.. https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.17044

Fialkowski, J., Diem, C., Borsos, A., & Thurner, S. (2025). A data-driven econo-financial stress-testing framework to estimate the effect of supply chain networks on financial systemic risk. arXiv preprint arXiv:2502.17044..

Finance Research Letters. (2026). Sectoral stress testing of bank credit risk. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2025.109165

Financial Stability Board. (2023). Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation. https://www.fsb.org

Food and Agriculture Organization & World Bank. (2015). Withdrawal from correspondent banking. Financial Nigeria International Limited. https://www.financialnigeria.com/de-risking-in-africa-correspondent-banking-on-the-decline-feature-75.html

Gamboa-Estrada, F., & Romero, J. V. (2024). Geopolitical Risk and Emerging Markets Sovereign Risk Premia. Banco de la Republica Colombia.

Gandica, Y., Geraci, M. V., Béreau, S., & Gnabo, J. Y. (2018). Fragmentation, integration and macroprudential surveillance of the US financial industry: Insights from network science. Plos one, 13(4), e0195110.https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.00296

Gennaioli, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (2018). A crisis of beliefs. Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691178108/a-crisis-of-beliefs

Georgescu, G. (2017). Bank de-risking impacts on finance and development. MPRA. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78247/

Gikunda, K. (2023). Empowering Africa: AI adoption across the continent. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.09457

Góes, C., & Bekkers, E. (2022). The impact of geopolitical conflicts on trade. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.12173

Goldin, I., & Vogel, T. (2010). Global governance and systemic risk in the 21st century: Lessons from the financial crisis. Global Policy, 1(1), 4-15.

Goldsmith-Pinkham, P., Sorkin, I., & Swift, H. (2020). Bartik instruments: What, when, why, and how. American Economic Review, 110(8), 2586–2624. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20181047

Gondwe, S., Gwatidzo, T., & Mahonye, N. (2024). Cross-border banking and bank stability: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Banking Regulation. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s41261-024-00254-x

Guo, Y., Yousef, E., & Naseer, M. M. (2025). Cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies in global perspective. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(11), 644. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm18110644

Gupta, R., Walker, L., & Reddie, A. W. (2024). Whack-a-Chip: The futility of hardware-centric export controls. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.14425

Hadlock, C., & Pierce, J. (2010). New evidence on measuring financial constraints. Review of Financial Studies, 23(5), 1909–1940. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhq009

Hassan, T. A., Hollander, S., Lent, L., Schwedeler, M., & Tahoun, A. (2019). Firm-level political risk. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(4), 2135–2202. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz021

Henisz, W. J., & Zelner, B. A. (2005). Legitimacy, interest group pressures, and change in emerging institutions. Academy of Management Review, 30(2), 361–382. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2005.16387890

Henriksen, L. F., & Seabrooke, L. (2020). Elites and transnational governance. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108774404

Hillman, A. J., Keim, G. D., & Schuler, D. (2004). Corporate political activity: A review and research agenda. Journal of Management, 30(6), 837–857. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jm.2004.06.003

Himmelberg, C. P., & Tsyplakov, S. (2020). Optimal terms of contingent capital, incentive effects, and capital structure dynamics. Journal of Corporate Finance, 64, 101635.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101635

Hopewell, K. (2025). Local currencies, payment networks, and the unmaking of dollar hegemony. Academic Journal of Business and Management, 7(2). https://www.aijbm.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/G845978.pdf

Houston, J. F., Jiang, L., Lin, C., & Ma, Y. (2014). Political connections and bank risk-taking. Journal of Financial Economics, 111(3), 725–743. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.11.003

Howell, S. T. (2020). Financing innovation: Evidence from R&D grants. American Economic Review, 110(4), 1136–1164. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20150808

Huang, Y., Huang, L., & Zhu, Q. (2021). Reinforcement learning for feedback enabled cyber resilience. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.00783

Hudecová, K., & Rajčániová, M. (2023). The impact of geopolitical risk on agricultural commodity prices. Agricultural Economics/Zemědělská Ekonomika, 69(4).

Humphrey, C., & Chen, Y. (2015). Developmental revolution or Bretton Woods revisited? The prospects of the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (ODI Working Paper). Overseas Development Institute. https://odi.org/en/publications/developmental-revolution-or-bretton-woods-revisited/

Hurd, T. R. (2017). Systemic risk transmission and multiple contagion channels. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.05289

Hurlin, C., Lajaunie, Q., & Pull, Y. (2026). Reverse stress testing geopolitical risk in corporate credit portfolios. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.03983

Iannone, B., Duttilo, P., & Gattone, S. A. (2025). Evaluating the resilience of ESG investments in European markets during turmoil periods. Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, 32(4), 5006-5020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.03269

Idemudia, U. (2014). Corporate social responsibility and development in Africa: Issues and possibilities. Progress in Development Studies, 14(2), 159–175. https://doi.org/10.1177/1464993413504357
Information Technology & Innovation Foundation. (2025). Decoupling risks: How semiconductor export controls
harm innovation. https://itif.org/publications/2025/11/10/decoupling-risks-semiconductor-export-controls-harm-us-chipmakers-innovation/

International Monetary Fund. (2023). Geoeconomic fragmentation and firm performance. IMF Working Papers. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023

International Monetary Fund. (2025). Geopolitical risks: Implications for asset prices. Global Financial Stability
Report. https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/GFSR/2025/April/English/text.ashx

International Monetary Fund. (2025). Global Financial Stability Report, April 2025. https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2025/april/english/ch2.pdf

Javaheri, D., Fahmideh, M., Chizari, H., Lalbakhsh, P., & Hur, J. (2023). Cybersecurity threats in FinTech: A systematic review. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.01752

Jeric, J. L. (2024). Managing risks, preventing crises: A political economy account of Basel III financial regulations. Global Economic Governance Programme Working Paper 99. University of Oxford. https://www.geg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/GEG%20WP_99%20Managing%20risks%2C%20preventing%20crises%20-%20a%20political%20economy%20account%20of%20Basel%20III%20financial%20regulations%20Jure%20L%20Jeric.pdf

Karolyi, G. A., & Taboada, A. G. (2015). Regulatory arbitrage and cross-border bank acquisitions. Journal of Finance, 70(6), 2395–2450. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12262

Kelly, B., Pástor, Ľ., & Veronesi, P. (2016). The price of political uncertainty. Journal of Finance, 71(5), 2417–2480. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12407

Kenya Multinational Corporation Study. (2022). Regulatory and political risk in Kenya multinational strategies. East Africa Journal of Business and Economics, 4(2), 156–178. https://eastafricajournal.org/index.php/jbf-eha/article/download/164

Khan, H. (2023). Dedollarization: The role of expanded BRICS and the Global South (MPRA Paper No. 119544). University Library of Munich. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119544/

Kikuchi, T. (2026). The innovation tax: Generative AI adoption, productivity paradox, and systemic risk in the U.S. banking sector. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.02607

Kingsley, A. F., Vanden Bergh, R. G., & Bonardi, J.-P. (2012). Political markets and regulatory uncertainty. Academy of Management Review, 37(1), 37–55. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2010.0216

Klimek, P., Obersteiner, M., & Thurner, S. (2015). Systemic trade risk of critical resources. Science advances, 1(10), e1500522.https://arxiv.org/abs/1504.03508

Kobrin, S. J. (2017). Bricks and mortar in a borderless world. Global Strategy Journal. https://doi.org/10.1002/gsj.1150

Kolk, A., & Lenfant, F. (2015). Cross-sector collaboration in conflict zones: The case of multinational enterprises and corporate social responsibility. Business & Society, 55(1), 71–104. https://doi.org/10.1177/0007650312469658

Kolliopoulos, A. (2025). Global banking regulation in the era of the new state interventionism. Journal of Banking Regulation. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41261-025-00290-1

Korsah, D., Amewu, G., & Osei Achampong, K. (2024). The impact of geopolitical risks, financial stress, economic policy uncertainty on African stock markets returns and volatilities: wavelet coherence analysis. Journal of Humanities and Applied Social Sciences, 6(5), 450-470.

Kubota, T. (2023). Monetary sovereignty and future global CBDC competition: A Japanese perspective. In Changing Orders in International Economic Law (pp. 60–70). Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003193104-7

Lau, C. K., Soliman, A. M., Zhang, D., & Apergis, N. (2024). Emissions prices, commodity futures, equity prices, and geopolitical risks dependence structure: Implications for portfolio diversification. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 60(14), 3237-3253.

Lee, D., Kim, J., & Park, S. (2024). Do firms increase ESG activities during periods of geopolitical risk? Evidence from Korean business groups. Finance Research Letters, 66, 105483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105483

Levina, A. (2024). Modern payment infrastructure of cross-border settlements between Russia and China. E3S Web of Conferences, 515, 04026. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202451504026

Li, P., Zhang, P., Guo, Y., & Li, J. (2024). How has the relationship between major financial markets changed during the Russia–Ukraine conflict?. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 11(1), 1731.. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-024-04231-7

Li, Q., & Resnick, A. (2003). Reversal of fortunes: Democratic institutions and foreign direct investment inflows. International Organization, 57(1), 175–211. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818303571077

Lwanda, G. (2025). Africa's AI gatekeeping era. LinkedIn. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/africas-ai-gatekeeping-era-strangle-continents-digital-george-lwanda-eocsf

Madan, S. (2023). Bearing forward: Sanctions on Russia tell a familiar story (Master's thesis). New York University. https://as.nyu.edu/content/dam/nyu-as/ir/documents/Madan-S-230511-Thesis.pdf

Maina, T. (2025). Effect of central bank digital currencies on financial system stability in Kenya. International Journal of Finance. https://doi.org/10.47941/ijf.3113

Making Finance Work for Africa & TCX. (2024). FX risk in the African banking sector: Survey results. https://www.mfw4a.org/events/webinar-recording-fx-risk-african-banking-sector-survey-results

Making Finance Work for Africa. (2024). African Financial Sector Report. https://www.mfw4a.org

Malatji, M. (2026). Bridging the AI divide in Sub-Saharan Africa. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06145

Malik, A. I. (2023). The rise of the Petroyuan and the challenge to US dollar hegemony. Strategic Studies, 43(1). https://issi.org.pk/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Ahmed_Ijaz_Malik_Vol_2_2023.pdf

Mans-Kemp, N., & van Zyl, S. (2021). ESG risk in African multinational expansion: An institutional investor perspective. International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, 19(2), 145–162. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41310-024-00262-3

Mathews, J. A., & Selden, M. (2018). China: The emergence of the Petroyuan and the challenge to US dollar hegemony. The Asia-Pacific Journal, 16(3), 1–3. https://apjjf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/article-1519.pdf

Mayer, J. (2024). De-dollarization: The global payment infrastructure and wholesale central bank digital currencies (FMM Working Paper No. 102-2024). IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation. https://ideas.repec.org/p/imk/fmmpap/102-2024.html

Mejia Gallon, M. (2025). Digital financial sanctions as economic warfare: A normative analysis through Just War Theory (Master's thesis). Central European University. https://www.etd.ceu.edu/2025/mejia-gallon_manuela.pdf

Mellahi, K., Frynas, J. G., Sun, P., & Siegel, D. (2016). A review of nonmarket strategy research. Journal of Management, 42(1), 143–173. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206315617241

Mertzanis, C., & Tebourbi, I. (2025). Geopolitical risk and global green bond market growth. European Financial Management, 31(1), 26-71.

Miller, C. (2022). Chip war: The fight for the world's most critical technology. Scribner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chip_War

Mitsas, S., Golitsis, P., & Khudoykulov, K. (2022). Investigating the impact of geopolitical risks on the commodity futures. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1), 2049477.

Moiseienko, A. (2023). The freezing of the Russian Central Bank's assets. European Journal of International Law, 34(4), 1125–1152. https://doi.org/10.1093/ejil/chad060

Montesi, G., & Papiro, G. (2018). Bank stress testing: A stochastic simulation framework. Risks. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks6030082

Mukit, M. A., & Ali, M. H. (2025). Stock-term market impact of major cyber-attacks: Evidence for the ten most exposed insurance firms to cyber risk. Risks, 13(3), 46. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks13030046

Müller, J., & Kerenyi, A. (2024). The challenges of fragmentation of the international financial system—Towards a brave new world order? Financial and Economic Review, 23(2), 131–155. https://doi.org/10.33893/FER.2024.0008

Murinde, V. (2023). How central banks in Africa can enhance resilience to global shocks. Centre for Global Finance.

Mwaniki, C. R. (2019). Investigating the effects of de-risking on financial services: A case of commercial banks in
Kenya (MBA research). eRepo. https://erepo.usiu.ac.ke/11732/5258

Natalucci, F., Qureshi, M. S., & Suntheim, F. (2024). Rising cyber threats pose serious concerns for financial stability. IMF Blog. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/04/09/rising-cyber-threats-pose-serious-concerns-for-financial-stability

Natalucci, F., Qureshi, M. S., & Suntheim, F. (2024). Rising cyber threats pose serious concerns for financial stability. IMF Blog. https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/04/09/rising-cyber-threats-pose-serious-concerns-for-financial-stability

Neaime, S. (2016). Financial crises and contagion vulnerability of MENA stock markets. Emerging Markets Review, 27, 14-35.https://www.femise.org/en/studies-and-research/financial-integration-and-shock-vulnerability-implications-for-the-cost-of-capital-in-emerging-mena-markets/

Nicolas, C., Roscovan, V., & Vlastakis, N. (2023). ESG reputation risk matters: An event study based on social media data. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.11571

Niepmann, F., & Shen, L. S. (2025). Geopolitical risk and global banking (International Finance Discussion Papers No. 1418). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1418.pdf

Nölke, A. (2022). The weaponization of global payment infrastructures: A strategic dilemma (SAFE White Paper No. 89). Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE. https://doi.org/10.48785/SAFE-WP-2022-89

Obiora, K. (2024). Should African central banks pursue digital currencies? Brookings Institution. https://
www.brookings.edu/articles/should-african-central-banks-pursue-digital-currencies/

Oetzel, J., & Getz, K. A. (2012). Why and how might firms respond strategically to violent conflict? Journal of International Business Studies, 43(5), 476–495. https://doi.org/10.1057/jibs.2011.50

Office of Financial Research. (2017). Cybersecurity and financial stability: Risks and resilience. OFR Viewpoint Paper 17-01. https://www.financialresearch.gov/viewpoint-papers/files/OFRvp_17-01_Cybersecurity.pdf

Ogenga, F., & Stanley, A. (2024). Regulating AI in Africa: Strategies & insights. Wilson Center. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/regulating-artificial-intelligence-africa-strategies-and-insights-kenya-ghana-and-african

Okolo, C. T. (2025). AI is not Africa's savior: Avoiding technosolutionism in digital development. Brookings Institution. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ai-is-not-africas-savior-avoiding-technosolutionism-in-digital-development/

Olatinsu, O. (2025). Stress testing and scenario analysis: Are current models fit? International Journal of Finance and Management. https://doi.org/10.33545/26175754.2024.v7.i2g.560

Olayinka, O. M., & Adegboye, A. (2021). Weak ESG enforcement in Africa: Empirical synthesis. Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment. https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2021.1928347

Oluyemi, O. A. (2025). Challenging the Bretton Woods institutions. Futurity Proceedings, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17160293

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2023). SME resilience in global shocks. OECD. https://www.oecd.org

Oyetade, D., & Muzindutsi, P.-F. (2023). Country risk and financial stability: A focus on commercial banks in Africa. Risks, 11(11), 198. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11110198

Ozili, P. K. (2021). Central bank digital currency research around the world: A review of literature. Journal of Money Laundering Control. https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jmlcpp/jmlc-11-2021-0126.html

Ozili, P. K. (2022). Central bank digital currencies: Agendas for future research. Research in International Business and Finance, 62, 101737. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101737

Ozili, P. K. (2023). A survey of central bank digital currency adoption in African countries. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/118794/

Ozili, P. K. (2024). Central bank digital currency: What it can achieve and cannot achieve in Africa. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/120966/

Panetta, I. C. (2024). Systemic cyber risk in the financial sector: Network analysis and resilience. In Network Risk and Security (pp. xxx–xxx). Springer. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-64916-5_8

Papa, M., Han, Z., & O'Donnell, F. (2023). The dynamics of informal institutions and counter-hegemony: Introducing a BRICS Convergence Index. European Journal of International Relations, 29(4), 960–989. https://
doi.org/10.1177/13540661231183352

Pastor, L., & Veronesi, P. (2013). Political uncertainty and risk premia. Journal of Financial Economics, 110(3), 520–545. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.08.007

Pax Silica Initiative. (2025). Pax Silica: Strengthening trusted supply chains. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Silica

Poledna, S., Hinteregger, A., & Thurner, S. (2016). Basel III effectiveness: Agent-based modeling of macroprudential policies. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.03505

Policy Center for the New South. (2025). Africa in the AI–energy nexus. https://www.policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/2025-10/PP_37-25.pdf

Pradhan, S. K., Stebunovs, V., Takáts, E., & Temesvary, J. (2025). Geopolitics meets monetary policy: Decoding their impact on cross-border bank lending. Bank for International Settlements. https://www.bis.org/publ/work1247.htm

Raddant, M., & Kenett, D. (2017). Interconnectedness in the global financial market. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.01028

Raddant, M., & Kenett, D. Y. (2021). Interconnectedness in the global financial market. Journal of International Money and Finance, 110, 102280.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand. (2025). Stress test on geopolitical risks. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/rbnz-stress-test-finds-top-banks-strong-against-geopolitical-risks-2025-11-02/

Reuters. (2025). Africa pioneers non-dollar payment systems. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/under-shadow-trump-warning-africa-pioneers-non-dollar-payments-systems

Reuters. (2026, March 11). Iran targets economic and banking interests; regional war escalates. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-will-target-us-israeli-economic-banking-interests-region-state-media-2026-03-11/

Ricci, M. L. A., Ahokpossi, M. C., Belianska, A., Khandelwal, K., Lee, M. S., Li, M. G. B., ... & Simione, F. F. (2024). Central bank digital currency and other digital payments in sub-Saharan Africa: a regional survey. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400273025.063

S&P Global. (2024). Top trends shaping global banking risks. https://www.spglobal.com/_assets/documents/ratings/research/101612443.pdf

Sacco, P. L., Ciarli, T., & De Domenico, M. (2022). Global governance networks: Stability and fragility under unilateral defection. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.00618

Şanlısoy, S., & Çiloğlu, T. (2023). A view of the future of the metaverse economy on the basis of the global financial system: New opportunities and risks. Journal of Corporate Governance, Insurance, and Risk Management, 10(1), 28-41.

Soobaroyen, T., & Ntim, C. G. (2019). ESG disclosure and institutional pressure in Africa: A systematic literature review. Journal of Accounting in Emerging Economies, 9(4), 515–538. https://doi.org/10.1108/JAEE-12-2018-0159
South African Reserve Bank. (2024). Financial Stability Review. https://www.resbank.co.za

Srouji, J., Torre, D., & Xu, Q. (2025). Should BRICS members adopt a wholesale digital payment system? GREDEG Working Papers, 2025-48. https://ideas.repec.org/p/gre/wpaper/2025-48.html

Stopford, J. M., & Strange, S. (1991). Rival states, rival firms. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511599260

Sun, P., Mellahi, K., & Wood, G. (2024). Should we stay or should we exit? Dilemmas faced by multinationals under sanctioned regimes. International Business Review, 33(4), 101296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ibusrev.2024.101296

Swift. (2016). De-risking in Africa on the rise, according to latest SWIFT data. https://www.swift.com/news-events/press-releases/de-risking-africa-rise-according-latest-swift-data

Tabachová, Z., Diem, C., Borsos, A., Burger, C., & Thurner, S. (2024). Estimating the impact of supply chain network contagion on financial stability. Journal of Financial Stability, 75, 101336.https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.04865

Tabirlioğlu, İ. (2025). The New Development Bank as a vehicle of hegemonic contestation. Global Panorama. https://www.globalpanorama.org/en/2025/10/the-new-development-bank-as-a-vehicle-of-hegemonic-contestation/

Techno-Nationalism vs. Global Collaboration. (2022). ResearchGate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/377412131_Techno-
Nationalism_vs_Global_Collaboration_Navigating_the_New_Reality_in_Diverse_Industries

The Proteus Group. (2024). Modern mercantilism and financial fragmentation. https://www.theproteusgroup.co.uk/journal/modern-mercantilism-financial-fragmentation

Topcu, M., & Can, U. (2025). Political stability, geopolitical risks, and bank stability. Finance Research Letters, 86, 108889.

Töpfer, L. M. (2018). China’s integration into the global financial system: Toward a state-led conception of global financial networks. Dialogues in Human Geography, 8(3), 251-271.

Trade Law Centre. (2025). Africa's digital economy & tech growth. https://www.tralac.org/news/article/16742-tralac-daily-news-7-april-2025.html

Tran, H. T., Nguyen, T. T., & Pham, V. H. (2025). Geopolitical risk, bank regulation, and systemic risk: A cross-country analysis. Journal of Financial Stability, 74, 101376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2025.101376

Tran, H.-C. (2026). Brokerage in the black box: Strategic ambiguity and global AI governance. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.06412

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. (2023). Economic Report on Africa. https://www.uneca.org

Vilakazi, T. (2018). How global banks "de-risking" their correspondent banking portfolios is isolating emerging African economies. Africagrowth Agenda, 15(4), 6–8.

Vodenska, I., & Becker, A. P. (2019). Interdependence, vulnerability and contagion in financial and economic networks. In New Perspectives and Challenges in Econophysics and Sociophysics (pp. 101-116). Cham: Springer International Publishing.

Waliullah, M., Hossain George, M. Z., Hasan, M. T., Alam, M. K., Sumaiya, M. K. K., & Siddiqui, N. A. (2025). Assessing the influence of cybersecurity threats and risks on the adoption and growth of digital banking: A systematic
literature review. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.22710

Wang, H. (2025). Modeling bank systemic risk of emerging markets under geopolitical shocks: Empirical evidence from BRICS countries. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.20515

Wang, Y., Song, G., & Lu, Y. (2025). Geopolitical risk, bank regulation, and systemic risk: A cross-country analysis. Finance Research Letters, 76, 106893. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2025.106893

Warren, P. (2018). Could a cyber attack cause a systemic impact in the financial sector? Bank of England. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2018/could-a-cyber-attack-cause-a-systemic-impact-final-web.pdf

Wenker, K. (2022). Retail central bank digital currencies, disintermediation and financial privacy. arXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.01535

Wong, A. Y., & Fong, T. P. W. (2011). Analysing interconnectivity among economies. Emerging Markets Review, 12(4), 432-442.

Wood, G. (2013). New BRICS development bank can rival the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Warwick Business School News. https://www.wbs.ac.uk/news/new-brics-development-bank-can-rival-the-international-monetary-fund-imf-and-the-world-bank/

Woods, N. (2024). Stranded? The IMF in a world of rising economic nationalism. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 40(2), 329-338. https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article-abstract/40/2/329/7691470

World Bank. (2016). De-risking in the financial sector. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/financialsector/brief/de-risking-in-the-financial-sector

World Bank. (2018). Surveys probe de-risking practices. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/financialsector/publication/world-bank-group-surveys-probe-derisking-practices

World Bank. (2022). Africa's Pulse. https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/africas-pulse

World Bank. (2023). Financing Africa: Through the crisis and beyond. https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/africa-regional-studies/publication/financing-africa-through-the-crisis-and-beyond

World Economic Forum. (2024). Why Africa could host the next semiconductor ecosystem. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/07/why-africa-could-provide-the-next-semiconductor-ecosystem-for-the-chip-business/

Wu, X. (2017). Friendly competition for co-progressive development: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank vs. the Bretton Woods institutions. Chinese Journal of International Law, 16(1), 41–68. https://doi.org/10.1093/chinesejil/jmx023

Xu, J. (2020). How the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank challenges the World Bank: A comparative case study of road projects in Gujarat, India. NYU Abu Dhabi Working Paper. https://sites.nyuad.nyu.edu/jss/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/JSS_Paper_AIIB_author-confirmed.pdf

Xu, W. (2025). Financial cooperation in the SCO amid intensifying regional integration. Economy of Regions, 3. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2025-3-11

Xue, F. (2025). Economic and financial cooperation between China and Russia in the context of US and EU sanctions (2014-2024). National Research University Higher School of Economics Working Papers. https://doi.org/10.17323/1813-8691-2025-2-89-106

Yellen, J. (2013). Interconnectedness and systemic risk: lessons from the financial crisis and policy implications: a speech at the American Economic Association/American Finance Association Joint Luncheon, San Diego, California, January 4, 2013 (No. 631). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).

Zehri, C., Ammar, L. S. B., & Youssef, W. A. B. (2025). Geopolitical risks and global capital flows: divergent vulnerabilities in emerging and advanced economies. Eurasian Economic Review, 1-31.

Zenios, S. A. (2026). Global payment fragmentation and small financial centres: SWIFT, Euroclear, and the BRICS challenge. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 19(2), 138. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19020138

Zhang, Y., Ayoko, O. B., & Liang, Q. (2021). The joint influence of CEO succession types and CEO-TMT faultline on firm’s strategic change. Journal of business research, 126, 137-152.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2020.12.055