Effect of Tourism Safety on Destination Choice in Nairobi County, Kenya

Abstract

The study examined the effect of tourism safety on destination choice in Nairobi County, Kenya, guided by perceived risk theory. It was anchored on the pragmatist paradigm and used a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative and qualitative data. A concurrent explanatory design supported integration of findings to explain relationships and provide contextual insight. The target population comprised domestic and international tourists visiting Nairobi County, together with selected tourism managers. A sample of 300 tourists was selected using stratified and simple random sampling techniques. The sample size was determined using Cochran’s formula for large populations at a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error. Tourism managers were selected purposively to provide contextual insights. Data were collected using structured questionnaires for tourists and semi-structured interview guides for tourism managers. A pilot study involving 30 respondents was conducted in a neighbouring tourism destination to test clarity, consistency, and reliability of the instruments. Content validity was established through expert review from tourism and research specialists, while reliability was confirmed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficients above the acceptable threshold of 0.70. Data analysis combined descriptive statistics, multiple regression analysis, and thematic analysis. Quantitative data were analysed using SPSS to generate frequencies, means, standard deviations, and regression coefficients, while qualitative data were analysed thematically to identify recurring patterns. Findings indicate that tourism safety strongly influences destination choice. Descriptive results show high levels of agreement that tourists prefer destinations with low health risks, strong hygiene standards, reliable health information, safe accommodation, effective emergency systems, and protection from crime such as kidnapping, assault, and theft. The overall mean score for tourism safety was 4.48, indicating strong agreement across safety dimensions. Regression analysis confirmed a statistically significant positive effect of tourism safety on destination choice (β = 0.497, p < 0.001), leading to rejection of the null hypothesis. Qualitative findings reinforced these results, showing that tourists prioritize personal safety, health protection, secure transport, emergency preparedness, and trustworthy travel arrangements when selecting destinations. Managers reported that Nairobi offers relatively good safety in key tourist zones, supported by increased policing, surveillance systems, and coordinated security efforts, although concerns remain regarding petty crime, fraud, and isolated security risks. The study concludes that tourism safety is key in shaping destination choice in Nairobi County. Safety perceptions influence both initial travel decisions and intentions to revisit or recommend destinations. The study recommends strengthening destination security systems, improving health and emergency preparedness communication, and enhancing coordination between tourism stakeholders and security agencies to improve tourist confidence and sustain destination competitiveness.