Drivers of Banditry and Its Effect on Household Economic Welfare in Kerio Valley, Kenya

Abstract

Banditry continues to undermine security, livelihoods, and development in Kenya’s Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), with Kerio Valley being one of the most affected regions. Although the effects of banditry continue to be felt by households, the underlying drivers remain insufficiently explored, limiting the effectiveness of interventions. This study investigated the socio-economic and structural drivers of banditry in Kerio Valley, Kenya. Based on the Economic Theory of Crime, the Capability Approach, and Conflict Transformation Theory, the study employed a descriptive survey design targeting 384 households selected through simple random sampling to investigate the drivers of banditry in Kerio Valley. Primary data were collected using structured questionnaires and analyzed using SPSS, applying both descriptive statistics and inferential analysis, including factor analysis and multiple linear regression. The findings revealed that youth unemployment, poverty, proliferation of small arms, weak security presence, and cultural practices such as cattle raiding significantly contribute to the persistence of banditry. A correlation analysis revealed a strong inverse relationship between banditry and household well-being, implying that as banditry intensifies, household well-being declines. The results of the regression analysis showed that these drivers were strongly and significantly related to the prevalence of banditry in the area. The research concludes that a set of economic, social, and institutional factors that promote banditry in Kerio Valley are present. It prescribes multi-pronged interventions, such as enhancing security infrastructure, increasing youth employment, controlling small arms, and overcoming of cultural drivers through education and peace-building initiatives.